Published September 26, 2026 in Market Update

Chula Vista homes are not piling up: 2.7 months of supply says so

By Heejung Petri

Real estate, Property System Grid

A lot of sellers right now are nervous. Rates are up. National headlines talk about sales slowing. The feeling in the air is that buyers have pulled back and homes are sitting. I pulled every listing through September 25, 2026, and here is what the numbers actually say.

At 2.7 months, this market is still well inside seller territory

Here is the plain truth. There are 138 homes for sale right now. About 51 are selling every month. At that pace, every home currently listed would be gone in 2.7 months. Under 4 months favors sellers. Over 6 favors buyers. At 2.7, this market is not even close to balanced.

Not one home came off the market without a sale. Not in the under 1,500 square foot range. Not in the larger homes. Not in the older neighborhoods. Not in the newer ones. Zero homes gave up across every size and every era of construction. That is a rare thing to see.

Nationally, new single-family homes are sitting at 8.5 months of supply, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. Existing home sales across the country fell 2.0% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. Here, supply is at 2.7 months and nothing is sitting unsold.

Every size and every era of construction sold, with nothing left behind

The typical home sold for $975,000. That number holds across a wide range of sizes. Smaller homes under 1,500 square feet sold at a typical price of $802,000. Homes between 1,500 and 2,500 square feet came in at $935,000. Larger homes between 2,500 and 3,500 square feet hit $1,250,000, and the biggest homes, between 3,500 and 5,000 square feet, reached $1,800,000.

The same story plays out by age. Homes built before 1970 sold at a typical price of $840,000. Homes from the 1970s came in at $865,000. Homes from the 1990s reached $1,060,000, and homes from the 2000s hit $1,107,500. Newer homes from the 2010s sold at $925,000. Every era moved. None sat without a sale.

One more thing worth noting. The typical price in the first part of the period, July through August, was $954,500. In the second part, August through September, it was $995,000. Prices did not drift down as fall approached. They moved up.

That is 151 homes sold across the full period, with not one coming off the market without a buyer. Every size, every decade of construction, every part of the period. The supply number alone does not tell you that. The zero cancellations do.

The common mistake sellers make when they read national headlines is to assume the local market matches. It does not always. Nationally, new homes are sitting at 8.5 months of supply. Here, the figure is 2.7. Those are two different markets, and pricing as if they are the same means a seller prices above where buyers in this market are actually buying.

The common mistake buyers make is the opposite. They read that sales are slowing nationally and assume they have room to negotiate hard. With 138 homes for sale and 51 selling every month, that room is limited. Knowing the local supply number before you make an offer matters more than knowing the national one.

What this means for you right now

If you are selling, the case for waiting is thin. Supply is tight, nothing is giving up, and prices ticked higher as summer ended. The one real headwind is rates. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That squeezes some buyers' budgets. Price your home where the data actually sits, not above it, and you are still in a strong position.

If you are buying, 2.7 months of supply means you are not shopping in a buyer's market. There are 138 homes for sale and the pace of sales is not slowing. Come in prepared. Know what you can afford at today's rates. And if you are a VA buyer on a PCS timeline, get your paperwork in order early. This market does not wait.