Published September 26, 2026 in Market Update

Chula Vista Stays Tight While the Country Softens

By Heejung Petri

Real estate, Property System Grid

You have probably heard that the housing market is softening. Rates are up. Sales are down. Supply is the highest it has been in over a decade, nationally. That is all true. But 'nationally' is doing a lot of work in that sentence, and it may not describe your street at all. I pulled every listing through September 25, 2026, and what I found here looks nothing like the national picture.

2.7 months of supply means buyers here are still competing for what little is available

Here is the plain version: there are 138 homes for sale right now. In the last 90 days, 153 homes sold. That works out to about 51 sales a month. At that pace, every home currently listed would be gone in 2.7 months. The general rule is that under 4 months favors sellers, and over 6 months favors buyers. This market is not close to either edge. It is sitting well inside seller territory.

Nationally, the picture is different. NAR reported 4.9 months of supply in August 2026, which their chief economist called the highest level in over ten years. This market is at 2.7 months. When you hear that supply is surging, that is a national story. It has not arrived here yet.

The gap between 2.7 months here and 4.9 months nationally is the whole story for a seller deciding whether now is a reasonable time to list. That gap is not a technicality. It is the difference between a market where buyers have choices and one where they are still competing for what little is available.

Prices held up across every size of home, and nothing came off the market unsold

The typical home sold for $975,000. Not one home in the data gave up and came off the market without selling. That is 151 homes that found buyers. When supply is tight and demand is steady, sellers do not have to wonder whether a buyer exists. They just have to price honestly.

The numbers hold up across every size. Smaller homes under 1,500 square feet sold at a typical price of $802,000. Homes between 1,500 and 2,500 square feet came in at $935,000. Move up to 2,500 to 3,500 square feet and the typical price was $1,250,000. The largest homes, between 3,500 and 5,000 square feet, sold at a typical price of $1,800,000. No size group had a single home give up without a sale.

The age of a home tells a similar story. Homes built before 1970 sold at a typical price of $840,000. Homes from the 1970s came in at $865,000. Homes built in the 1990s sold at $1,060,000, and homes from the 2000s, the largest group with 58 sales, reached a typical price of $1,107,500. Not one home in any of those decades came off the market without a sale. That kind of consistency across different eras of construction is worth noting. It is not just one type of home moving. It is the whole market.

The market also picked up slightly as the period went on. Homes that sold in the July to August window had a typical price of $954,500. Homes that sold in the August to September window came in at $995,000. That is not a guarantee of anything going forward, but it is not a market in retreat.

What this means if you are selling or buying here right now

If you are selling, supply is tight, nothing is sitting unsold, and prices moved higher from summer into early fall. The one thing to watch is what buyers can actually afford. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% the week of September 24, 2026, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That is 73 basis points higher than a year ago. Buyers are stretching. A price that is honest and well supported by recent sales will move. One that is not may sit longer than the supply numbers suggest it should.

If you are buying, the local market is tighter than what you may be reading about nationally. Nationally, supply hit 4.9 months in August 2026, the highest in over ten years, according to NAR. Here it is 2.7 months. That means fewer homes to choose from and less room to negotiate. Come in prepared. Know what has sold, know what the typical price is for the size you want, and do not assume the national softness has reached this market yet. It has not.